18 forecasters

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

25%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 18, 2022

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch