25 comments
1.3k forecasters
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
15%chance
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Opened:Jun 14, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 16, 2022
When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?
>Jan 2031
(02 May 2030 - >Jan 2031)
>Jan 2031
(02 May 2030 - >Jan 2031)
6 forecasters
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?
60% chance
28
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
2% chance
167