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2024 Republican Nominee for US Prez

Question

Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, saying at a rally in March 2022, "[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before". Early polling for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of June 2022), though Fox News producers have called him "the future of the Republican Party". DeSantis is a frequent second-place favorite in polling behind Trump.

Former Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; in April 2022, when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded "We’ll go where we’re called".

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as No. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.

For this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the Republican National Convention.

If there is no Republican National Convention convened in the year 2024, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.

Note: in the previous versions of this question, Donald Trump's question originally asked "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?"; please bear this in mind when interpreting the forecast history.

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