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584 comments
1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
Authors:
casens
Opened:Mar 11, 2021
Closes:Sep 1, 2024
Resolved:Aug 21, 2024
Elections
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Other
33.4%
Gavin Newsom
31.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10.3%
5 others
171 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Keir Starmer
23%
Andy Burnham
15%
Lisa Nandy
10%
6 others
93 forecasters

If inaugurated as President in 2025, will these 2024 presidential candidates complete a full four-year term?

Kamala Harris
Annulled
Nikki Haley
Annulled
Ron DeSantis
Annulled
5 others
68 forecasters
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