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584 comments
1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
Authors:
casens
Opened:Mar 11, 2021
Closes:Sep 1, 2024
Resolved:Aug 21, 2024
Elections
2021-2025 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Other
39.8%
Gavin Newsom
23%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10%
5 others
163 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Angela Rayner
25%
Keir Starmer
23%
Andy Burnham
15%
6 others
65 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

30% chance
53
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