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What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

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36 forecasters

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Year

median

(million km²)

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CDF

	<2	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>8
community	1.7%	3.499	3.945	4.345	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<2	1.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	3.499	—
median	3.945	—
upper 75%	4.345	—
Upper bound
>8	0.1%	—

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Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 24

2023

2025

2030

2040

2050

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Sep 24, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2051

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2051

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What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

14.4

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

2.19

What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years?

18.1

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Sep 24, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2051

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2051

Environment & Climate

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Scientists Warn Loss of Key US Satellite Data Could Hinder Sea Ice Research Amid Record Low Levels in Antarctica

•Jul 2, 2025

Antarctic summer sea ice is at record lows. Here’s how it will harm the planet – and us

•Jul 1, 2025

Southern Ocean shows troubling signs of a growing climate emergency

•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

14.4

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

2.19

What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years?

18.1