77 forecasters

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Jan-2031

Jan-2022

Feb-2023

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Jan 14, 2021

Closed:

Mar 14, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2030

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard

🏆 2021 Leaderboard

Sora 2 and ChatGPT are consuming so much power that OpenAI just did another 10 gigawatt deal

CNN•Oct 13, 2025

Scientists reveal the exact date when technology will surpass human intelligence - and there's not long to wait

Daily Mail•Oct 11, 2025

The billion-dollar infrastructure deals powering the AI boom

TechCrunch•Oct 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32

N/A

Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30

N/A

Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26

N/A

2 others

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?