📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates?

31
103 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Dateresolution
Date25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
<8
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
0.5%
14.59
15.33
15.69

What was the final result?14.8

Community Baseline Score
35.0
Community Peer Score
32.5

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 44
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting AI Progress
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Technical Benchmarks
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2021 Leaderboard
2020-2021 Leaderboard
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Machine learning
Information technology
Linguistics

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