Question

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

63 comments63

Total Forecasters1293

Community Prediction

15%

(8% - 22%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jun 28, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 29, 2022

Politics

On Anniversary of Dobbs Decision, Democrats Continue to Fearmonger on Abortion

Townhall•Jun 24, 2025

Three years post-Dobbs: How to chart a new course for reproductive rights

MSNBC•Jun 24, 2025

Abortions rose in 2024 due to pills available through telehealth, report finds

PBS NewsHour•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.5

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

14%

Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?

75%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jun 28, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 29, 2022

Politics

On Anniversary of Dobbs Decision, Democrats Continue to Fearmonger on Abortion

Townhall•Jun 24, 2025

Three years post-Dobbs: How to chart a new course for reproductive rights

MSNBC•Jun 24, 2025

Abortions rose in 2024 due to pills available through telehealth, report finds

PBS NewsHour•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.5

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

14%

Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?

75%