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66
comments
1.4k
forecasters
Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?
9%
chance
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (4)
Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
10 votes
The Heritage Foundation, along with more than 100 anti-abortion and other extremist organizations, has issued Project 2025, a plan that includes using federal government aspects to destroy access to abortion.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
5 votes
In 2024, 166 House Republicans, roughly three-quarters of the conference, signed on to legislation for a nationwide abortion ban, indicating strong support within the party.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
The National Right to Life Committee (NRLC), an anti-abortion advocacy group, is a key organization in the anti-abortion movement, although its president Carol Tobias has stated there is no consensus in Congress for a national law.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
6 votes
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Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Jun 28, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Jun 29, 2022
Politics
News Match
South Carolina looks at most restrictive abortion bill in the US as opponents keep pushing limits
Associated Press
•
Nov 16, 2025
Florida is suing Planned Parenthood for racketeering. It’s part of a bigger plan.
MSNBC
•
Nov 12, 2025
Republicans demand tougher abortion restrictions to extend Obamacare funds
NBC
•
Nov 12, 2025
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