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64 comments
1.4k forecasters

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

12%chance
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:Jun 28, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 29, 2022
Politics
Democracy Now logo
Will El Salvador’s Total Abortion Ban Be a Model for the U.S.? Maria Hinojosa Investigates
Democracy Now•Oct 2, 2025
Mother Jones logo
Fiercely Anti-Abortion Judge Has Bowed Out of Blockbuster Mifepristone Case
Mother Jones•Oct 2, 2025
Slate logo
Trump Might Have Just Signaled a Momentous Change on Abortion
Slate•Oct 1, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

53.2%
(43.9 - 61.3)
53.2%
(43.9 - 61.3)
29 forecasters

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

6% chance
1.1k

Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?

75% chance
7
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