67
1.8k forecasters
Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?
3%chance
Top Key Factors
Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.
Decreases Likelihood
The Heritage Foundation, along with more than 100 anti-abortion and other extremist organizations, has issued Project 2025, a plan that includes using federal government aspects to destroy access to abortion.
Increases Likelihood
In 2024, 166 House Republicans, roughly three-quarters of the conference, signed on to legislation for a nationwide abortion ban, indicating strong support within the party.
Increases Likelihood
The National Right to Life Committee (NRLC), an anti-abortion advocacy group, is a key organization in the anti-abortion movement, although its president Carol Tobias has stated there is no consensus in Congress for a national law.
Increases Likelihood