1.4k forecasters

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

12%chance

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 28, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 29, 2022

Republican senators turn to RFK Jr. to lead the latest attack on abortion access

MSNBC•Oct 12, 2025

Anti-abortion activists pardoned by Trump face trial for new clinic ‘invasion’

Guardian•Oct 9, 2025

Republican Fury After FDA Approves Abortion Pill: ‘Complete Betrayal’

Newsweek•Oct 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch