201
2.5k forecasters

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

18%chance
Top Key Factors
Putin won the 2024 Russian election with 87% of the vote, indicating strong political control and consolidation of power.
Decreases Likelihood
Russia's defense spending will make up 32.5% of its federal budget in 2025, up from 28.3% in 2024, indicating a significant focus on military activities.
Increases Likelihood
Russia's economy is under pressure with inflation spiking, leading to a record high interest rate of 21% as of December 2024.
Increases Likelihood
Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.
Increases Likelihood
Despite the increase in troop numbers, Russia has been unable to induce sufficient numbers of volunteers for combat, with official numbers of 'volunteer recruits' being exaggerated.
Decreases Likelihood