Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
200
comments
2.1k
forecasters
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
20%
chance
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (5)
Putin won the 2024 Russian election with 87% of the vote, indicating strong political control and consolidation of power.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
5 votes
Russia's defense spending will make up 32.5% of its federal budget in 2025, up from 28.3% in 2024, indicating a significant focus on military activities.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
4 votes
Russia's economy is under pressure with inflation spiking, leading to a record high interest rate of 21% as of December 2024.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
4 votes
Despite the increase in troop numbers, Russia has been unable to induce sufficient numbers of volunteers for combat, with official numbers of 'volunteer recruits' being exaggerated.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
5 votes
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
Background Info
Histogram
Follow
embed
Authors:
tryingToPredictFuture
Opened:
Jun 28, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Jun 29, 2022
Geopolitics
News Match
Why plummeting oil price could finally undo Putin: As Ukraine hits refineries, Russia's economy is struggling and rare anti-Vladimir protests are breaking out which could topple the tyrant
Daily Mail
•
Nov 1, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
chance
411
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
14%
chance
101
Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?
1%
chance
170
Show More Questions