Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla) said in April 2019, "I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year."
Waymo launched a driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona, US in October 2020.
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
The sub-questions below will resolve as the earliest date when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:
- At least 5 top Metaculus users (users in Metaculus' top 100 among questions opened in the last 12 months) report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client.
- At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States.
- There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides.
These trips may happen in geo-fenced areas.
The sub-questions below refer to the dates when these 5 cumulative trips have been reached for the specific company providing the service. "Any Service" refers to any one or multiple self-driving taxi providers; "Waymo" and "Tesla" refer to only services which use software or equipment developed by the respective company.
- By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area.
- The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course).
- The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service.
- The client must pay for the trip.
- Reports by riders must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken.