Group

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

39 comments39

47 forecasters

Make a Prediction

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Closed for forecasting

PDF

CDF

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	92.38%	94.24%	96.47%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	92.38%	—
median	94.24%	—
upper 75%	96.47%	—

Resolved

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 39

June 30, 2023

June 30, 2024

June 30, 2025

Authors:

jacob.steinhardt

Opened:

Jul 4, 2022

Closed:

Jun 29, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2025

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2022-2023 Leaderboard

2021-2025 Leaderboard

In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark?

93.5

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

61.8

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

91.9