23 comments
99 forecasters
When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?
Current estimate
10 Oct 2029
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 10, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 12, 2022
Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
57% chance
269
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
13 forecasters
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
40% chance
131