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23
100
forecasters
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100 forecasters
AI Demonstrations
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When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?
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Current estimate
20 Mar 2030
20 Mar 2030
(01 Apr 2027 - Jan 2036)
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AI NY Times Best Seller before 2030
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chance
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AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
8 comments
136 forecasters
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33%
chance
8 comments
32 forecasters
Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?
Current estimate
27 Dec 2028
1 comment
23 forecasters
AI to publish in a top scientific journal
Current estimate
12 Nov 2027
38 comments
112 forecasters
Date AI creates a critically acclaimed film?
Current estimate
30 Apr 2030
13 comments
23 forecasters
AI Book Summarization Commonly Available
Current estimate
19 Mar 2026
54 comments
177 forecasters
AI-Generated Film Ranked #1 In Streaming
Current estimate
21 Oct 2029