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23
forecasters
9
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23 forecasters
Computing and Math
1 more...
When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?
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Current estimate
12 Nov 2027
12 Nov 2027
(01 Aug 2026 - 12 May 2030)
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3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
8 comments
32 forecasters
Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?
Current estimate
27 Dec 2028
8 comments
136 forecasters
25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050
33%
chance
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
7 comments
69 forecasters
Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning
Current estimate
11 Sep 2026
13 comments
23 forecasters
AI Book Summarization Commonly Available
Current estimate
19 Mar 2026
0 comments
25 forecasters
Dates Large AI Models Released
8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
1 comment
14 forecasters
First curated AI-written LessWrong post
Current estimate
04 Sep 2025