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14
forecasters
8
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14 forecasters
When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?
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Current estimate
04 Sep 2025
04 Sep 2025
(23 Oct 2024 - 11 Mar 2027)
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18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
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2030 or later
10.2%
1 comment
23 forecasters
AI to publish in a top scientific journal
Current estimate
12 Nov 2027
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
8 comments
32 forecasters
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Current estimate
27 Dec 2028
38 comments
112 forecasters
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Current estimate
30 Apr 2030
1 comment
54 forecasters
Dates that OpenAI reports an AI reached these Self-improvement risk levels?
8 comments
136 forecasters
25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050
33%
chance
13 comments
141 forecasters
AI Unauthorized Access Before 2033?
99%
chance