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40 comments
26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous
LatviaAmbiguous
LithuaniaAmbiguous
Authors:
ok
Opened:Aug 15, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2039
Resolved:Dec 14, 2022
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Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States
30%
Poland
30%
Lithuania
29%
9 others
33 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
6 others
74 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran
57%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
111 forecasters
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