40 forecasters

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

66%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2037

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2037

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 31, 2022

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