6 comments
41 forecasters
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
66%chance
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 29, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2037
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2037
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 31, 2022
Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?
94% chance
46
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
58 forecasters
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
86.6% chance
30