15 comments
77 forecasters
Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 12, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 17, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 14, 2022
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
25% chance
2.1k
Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
33.3% chance
19
Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?
0.1% chance
71