Question

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Resolved:No

15 comments15

Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

10.4

Community Baseline Score

75.6

Authors:

demirev

Opened:

Aug 12, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 14, 2022

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

25%

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

33.3%

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

0.1%

Authors:

demirev

Opened:

Aug 12, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 14, 2022

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

25%

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

33.3%

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

0.1%