Question

Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?

Resolved:Yes

19 comments19

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

28.4

Community Peer Score

1.5

Authors:

galen

Opened:

Aug 19, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 21, 2022

Law

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?

42.4%

Will the National Party win more seats than the Liberal Party in an election for the Australian House of Representatives before 2035?

20%

When the Coalition next governs Australia, will it be in majority?

57%

Authors:

galen

Opened:

Aug 19, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 21, 2022

Law

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?

42.4%

Will the National Party win more seats than the Liberal Party in an election for the Australian House of Representatives before 2035?

20%

When the Coalition next governs Australia, will it be in majority?

57%