🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

7
6
9 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
32.9
42.5
54.6

What was the final result?54.5

Community Baseline Score
-1.0
Community Peer Score
19.0

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 7
Authors:
zoehtwilliams
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Technical Benchmarks
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2022 Leaderboard
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Information technology
OpenAI
Sam Altman
Software engineering
DeepMind

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