Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
2
comments
59
forecasters
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
65%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
Share
Predict
1d
1w
2m
all
SpaceX
NASA
CNSA
Others (2)
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Question Info
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Aug 21, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2100
Economy & Business
Technology
Geopolitics
News Match
SpaceX to launch Starship today in crucial test of Elon Musk’s Mars plans
Independent
•
Oct 13, 2025
SpaceX to launch Starship's 11th flight test: What to know about past launches
USA Today
•
Oct 13, 2025
Is NASA losing the moon race? SpaceX Starship’s megarocket launching Monday may have answers
CNN
•
Oct 12, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?
1%
chance
116
How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?
2025
2.93
2030
8.23
2035
11
165
forecasters
When will China first successfully land people on Mars?
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
34
forecasters
Show More Questions
