66 forecasters

Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?

18%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 7, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 9, 2022

Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell set for two-horse race to be Labour deputy

Guardian•Sep 11, 2025

Keir Starmer will meet Israeli president Isaac Herzog as MPs express ‘grave concern’ at the visit – UK politics live

Guardian•Sep 10, 2025

Starmer has rigged the deputy leadership contest so no one to the left of Thatcher can win

Canary•Sep 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?