Question
How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?
Resolved:Below lower boundTotal Forecasters30
Community Prediction
<-15
(<-15 - -11.8)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-15 | 60.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | <-15 | — |
| median | <-15 | — |
| upper 75% | -11.76 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15 | 0.3% | — |
What was the final result?Below lower bound
Community Baseline Score
29.2
Community Peer Score
42.4
Authors:
Opened:Sep 9, 2022
Closes:Oct 5, 2022
Resolves:Oct 6, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 11, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Sep 9, 2022
Closes:Oct 5, 2022
Resolves:Oct 6, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 11, 2022