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Russia General Mobilization Before 2023

Question

The conflict in Ukraine continues, and Russia has yet to achieve its goals. NATO countries and their allies continue to pour tens of billions of dollars of military aid into Ukraine in an effort to strengthen the country's armed forces. So far, Russia has avoided launching a general mobilization or formally declaring war on Ukraine, which would enable it to legally send conscripts to the conflict. Russia may feel it is necessary at some point to order a general mobilization, in order to launch new offensives against Ukraine, gain additional concessions from the country, and minimize its long-term losses.

Will Russia order a general mobilization by January 1, 2023?

This question will resolve as Yes if any of the following criteria are met prior to January 1, 2023:

  • A formal declaration of war is made by Russia as prescribed by its constitution, requiring a majority vote in the State Duma, Federation Council, and signature by the President of the Russian Federation.

  • A law or decree is passed by the government of Russia ordering the activation of reserve military forces and authorizing the use of these forces, as well as conscripts, in Ukraine or combat elsewhere outside of Russian territory.

Categories:
Ukraine

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