Question

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Resolved:Yes

9 comments9

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction

99%

(75% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

2.7

Community Baseline Score

11.2

Authors:

reignoffire

Opened:

Sep 26, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 27, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Natural Sciences

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?

99%

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

Jun 2039

Authors:

reignoffire

Opened:

Sep 26, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 27, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Natural Sciences

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?

99%

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

Jun 2039