Question

Will more than 150,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Resolved:Ambiguous

9 comments9

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction

55%

(55% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

dtark

Opened:

Oct 27, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 29, 2022

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

Russia Ramps Up Front Line Push Against Ukraine

Breitbart•Jul 2, 2025

Russia launched its largest aerial attack since war began, Ukraine says

•Jul 1, 2025

Russia deploys 50,000 troops around Sumy, threatening new push into Ukraine

New York Post•Jun 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

52%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

11%

Authors:

dtark

Opened:

Oct 27, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 29, 2022

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

Russia Ramps Up Front Line Push Against Ukraine

Breitbart•Jul 2, 2025

Russia launched its largest aerial attack since war began, Ukraine says

•Jul 1, 2025

Russia deploys 50,000 troops around Sumy, threatening new push into Ukraine

New York Post•Jun 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

52%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

11%