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What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

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114 forecasters

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Year

median

(children/woman)

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CDF

	<1.5	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>3
community	0.2%	2.093	2.171	2.244	0.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1.5	0.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	2.093	—
median	2.171	—
upper 75%	2.244	—
Upper bound
>3	0.2%	—

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Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 93

2023

2025

2032

2052

2122

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Oct 12, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 2, 2123

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What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

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What will the world population be in the following years?

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Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Oct 12, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Social Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

The American women who are making Elon Musk's doomsday prediction a reality

Daily Mail•Jun 28, 2025

Why are people freaking out about the birth rate?

NPR Online News•Jun 27, 2025

South Korea Reports Biggest Fertility Spike in 34 Years

Breitbart•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

2.17

What will the world population be in the following years?

8.22B