Question

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

Resolved:Yes

21 comments21

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction

20%

(10% - 31%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-57.6

Community Peer Score

2.6

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Nov 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 4, 2022

Geopolitics

Politics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

How global warfare has brought new risks to air travel: Electronic jamming, mid-air collisions and even getting shot down by stray missile are more likely than ever for holiday planes

Daily Mail•Jun 24, 2025

Russia is Making New Plans to Attack Europe, Warns Zelensky

Breitbart•Jun 23, 2025

It’s not foolish to believe Putin will attack Nato

Spectator (UK)•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

8.5%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Nov 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 4, 2022

Geopolitics

Politics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

How global warfare has brought new risks to air travel: Electronic jamming, mid-air collisions and even getting shot down by stray missile are more likely than ever for holiday planes

Daily Mail•Jun 24, 2025

Russia is Making New Plans to Attack Europe, Warns Zelensky

Breitbart•Jun 23, 2025

It’s not foolish to believe Putin will attack Nato

Spectator (UK)•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

8.5%