Question
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
    •

    • Your submission is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Ukrainian NATO Membership before 2024

    Created by rod and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    On September 30, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an "accelerated" application for Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Zelenskyy's press statement:

    We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.

    ...

    Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.

    We know it's possible. We have seen Finland and Sweden start accession to the Alliance this year without a Membership Action Plan.

    This is fair. This is also fair for Ukraine. This is the consolidation at the level of the treaty of what has already been achieved in life and what are our values.

    We understand that this requires the consensus of all members of the Alliance. We understand that it is necessary to reach such a consensus. And therefore, while this is happening, we offer to implement our proposals regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Compact, which was developed and presented to our partners.

    Security has no alternatives. But determination is needed to guarantee it.

    We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.

    Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath said "A speedy accession for Ukraine into NATO is unlikely."

    Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?

    This question will resolve as Yes if Ukraine is inducted as a full member of NATO before January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC. If Ukraine is officially accepted as on the path to full induction, but does not actually become a full NATO member before 2024, that will not be sufficient to resolve the question as Yes.

    Categories:
    Geopolitics – Armed Conflict
    Politics – European
    Ukraine

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.