135 forecasters

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

16%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Oct 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 21, 2022

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Taiwan bars officials and students from China’s ‘retrocession’ events

Independent•Oct 18, 2025

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