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What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years?

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Year

median

(deaths/100k)

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CDF

	<0.01	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1000
community	4.0%	0.2577	1.659	4.418	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.01	4.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.2577	—
median	1.659	—
upper 75%	4.418	—
Upper bound
>1000	0.4%	—

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Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 22

2023

2025

2032

2052

2122

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2124

Forecasting Our World in Data

Politics

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