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What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

19 comments19

64 forecasters

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Year

median

(FLOPS)

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CDF

	<4.4×10¹⁷	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1×10⁶⁰
community	1.2%	4.3×10³⁸	2.3×10⁴⁵	1.6×10⁵⁸	20.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<4.4×10¹⁷	1.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	4.3×10³⁸	—
median	2.3×10⁴⁵	—
upper 75%	1.6×10⁵⁸	—
Upper bound
>1×10⁶⁰	20.6%	—

Resolved

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 32

2122

2052

2032

2025

2023

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Computing and Math

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