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24 comments
93 forecasters

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
casens
Opened:Oct 12, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2123
Scheduled resolution:Apr 2, 2124
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What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2023
1.2×10¹⁸
2025
3×10¹⁸
2032
8.7×10¹⁹
2 others
69 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

2023
168.2B
2025
634B
2032
1.94T
2 others
74 forecasters

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32
N/A
Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32
N/A
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
N/A
2 others
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