7 comments
16 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
38%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 38% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Nov 2, 2015
Closes:Dec 31, 2015
Resolved:Mar 1, 2016
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 4, 2015
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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80% chance
141
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95% chance
131
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
80% chance
34