Question
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction
1.38 failures
(0.976 failures - 2.36 failures)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.9764 | — |
| median | 1.383 | — |
| upper 75% | 2.358 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >5 | 0.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 24, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 26, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Oct 24, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 26, 2022