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Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years?

10
17 comments17
113 forecasters

Make a Prediction

YearMy PredictionMe
2024
no
2022
no
2023
no
Resolved Dec 31, 2024
Community Peer Score
9.4

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 105
Authors:
evanbd
Opened:Oct 28, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 7, 2025
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Satellite photos show how Russia is building up 5 of its secret nuclear bases
Business Insider•Jul 14, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

6%

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

9463
Authors:
evanbd
Opened:Oct 28, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 7, 2025
Geopolitics
Politics
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2022 Leaderboard
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Business Insider logo
Satellite photos show how Russia is building up 5 of its secret nuclear bases
Business Insider•Jul 14, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

6%

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

9463
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