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17 comments
113 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years?

2022result: No
2023result: No
2024result: No
Authors:
evanbd
Opened:Oct 28, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 8, 2025
Geopolitics
Politics
Technology
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Independent logo
Trump’s nuclear weapons tests won’t include explosions ‘right now,’ official says
Independent•Nov 3, 2025
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How will ‘limited’ US nuclear tests avoid any explosions?
Al Jazeera•Nov 3, 2025
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Map Shows First US Nuclear Missile Test Since Trump Comments
Newsweek•Nov 3, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

5% chance
28

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1% chance
151

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

3% chance
35
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