Question
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters1152
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
9.1
Community Baseline Score
97.3
Authors:
Opened:Oct 21, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 22, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1%
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
0.3%
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%
Authors:
Opened:Oct 21, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 22, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1%
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
0.3%
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%