Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
13
comments
118
forecasters
Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
> 50 km^2
Ambiguous
< 50 km^2
result:
No
Share
1d
1w
2m
all
> 50 km^2
< 50 km^2
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Question Info
Resolution Criteria
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Oct 21, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:
Jan 2, 2024
Red Lines in Ukraine
Geopolitics
🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard
News Match
Evaluating Trump’s Claim that Ukraine Can Win the War
AntiWar
•
Oct 14, 2025
Washington is Sleepwalking Toward Nuclear Armageddon
American Thinker
•
Oct 13, 2025
Unanswered questions about Western and Russian geopolitical aims
American Thinker
•
Oct 9, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1%
chance
183
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
1%
chance
422
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
0.2%
chance
240
Show More Questions
