Group

Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

86 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 86

Ukraine does not strike

Ukraine strikes

Make a Prediction

Strike >10km in Russian Territory		My Prediction		Me
Ukraine strikes	no

Ukraine does not strike	ambiguous

Resolved Dec 31, 2023

Community Peer Score

9.3

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Oct 21, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Red Lines in Ukraine

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

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Daily Mail•Jul 7, 2025

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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Oct 21, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Red Lines in Ukraine

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Could Putin and Xi really invade Taiwan and Europe at the same time?

Daily Mail•Jul 7, 2025

Ukraine Strikes Russian Fighter Jet Airbase in Precision Aerial Attack

Newsweek•Jul 5, 2025

Russia hits Kyiv with massive air attack, biggest of war so far

•Jul 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%