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25
192
forecasters
42
25 comments
192 forecasters
Fermi Paradox Series
2 more...
Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?
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Current estimate
9.27×10⁻⁴%
9.27×10⁻⁴%
(8.19×10⁻¹⁰ - 0.0909)
Forecast Timeline
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Forecast Timeline
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25 comments
176 forecasters
Drake's Equation Second Parameter f_p
Current estimate
0.875%
10 comments
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Drake's Equation Fifth Parameter f_i
Current estimate
9.46×10⁻⁴%
11 comments
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Drake's Equation Third Parameter n_e
Current estimate
0.0521 planets/star
14 comments
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Drake's Equation Sixth Parameter f_c
Current estimate
0.154%
20 comments
155 forecasters
Drake's Equation First Parameter R∗
Current estimate
4.47 stars/year
23 comments
165 forecasters
Drake's Equation Seventh Parameter L
Current estimate
25.3k years
2 comments
166 forecasters
Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?
7%
chance
3 comments
37 forecasters
"Other risk" to cause (near) extinction
25%
chance