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176 forecasters
Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?
Current estimate
0.159%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Aug 27, 2018
Closes:Sep 7, 2118
Scheduled resolution:Sep 7, 2118
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 28, 2018
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?
3.35×10⁻⁴%
(1.05×10⁻⁸ - 0.057)
3.35×10⁻⁴%
(1.05×10⁻⁸ - 0.057)
164 forecasters
Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?
8.83×10⁻⁴%
(2.24×10⁻¹⁰ - 0.0926)
8.83×10⁻⁴%
(2.24×10⁻¹⁰ - 0.0926)
192 forecasters
Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?
0.874%
(0.682 - 0.957)
0.874%
(0.682 - 0.957)
175 forecasters