97 forecasters

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

3.5%chance

3.5%chance

Annulled

Annulled

The community gave this a 4% chance, and it resolved Annulled.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 28, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2022

Red Lines in Ukraine

2022-2023 Leaderboard

'It is time to call Putin's WW3 bluff': Russia's drone incursions are the signal NATO must now join the fight in Ukraine or risk European invasion, experts warn

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

Russia raises tensions with NATO as Putin shows off his battlefield nuclear weapons

Independent•Sep 16, 2025

Russia shows off conventional and nuclear military might in drills — and raises tensions with NATO

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch