97 forecasters

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

3.5%chance

3.5%chance

Annulled

Annulled

The community gave this a 4% chance, and it resolved Annulled.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 28, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2022

Red Lines in Ukraine

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