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>6 hour Twitter outage before mid-2023


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Twitter is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. On October 27th, 2022, Elon Musk completed a $44 billion buyout of Twitter.

While Twitter has not experienced any prolonged outages since the buyout, on July 14th, 2022, the site experienced one of its longest outages for years. During that outage, the social network was completely unavailable to users around the globe on web and mobile for almost an hour.

Since Musk’s buyout in October, massive layoffs have occurred across the company, including the engineering department. According to a New York Times article from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter.

Will Twitter experience an outage of greater than 6 hours before mid-2023?

This question will resolve Yes if, before July 1st, 2023, the Twitter platform is continuously unavailable to users for more than 360 minutes, as reported by or equivalently reliable sources for website reliability as determined by Metaculus admins. Otherwise it will resolve No.

In the event of a partial outage, Twitter will be considered "continuously unavailable to users" as long as at least 10 million Twitter users are reportedly affected, or the majority of Twitter users in territories with a population totaling at least 100 million.

Twitter will be considered "available" in an area as long as most Twitter users there are able to both view new tweets in a feed as they are Tweeted and issue new Tweets that others can see, without excessive need to wait, retry, or otherwise evade service problems to do so.

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