73 comments
97 forecasters
Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026?
Sam Bankman-Friedresult: Yes
Caroline Ellisonresult: Yes
Gary Wangresult: Yes
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 20, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
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How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?
299 months
(295 - 303)
299 months
(295 - 303)
118 forecasters
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
299 months
(250 - 304)
299 months
(250 - 304)
46 forecasters
Will Sam Bankman-Fried be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?
0.1% chance
160